Will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court in 2024?
  • 367
  • 610
  • $142,419
The question of whether there will be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court in 2024 is open to interpretation. A new justice would confirm the market if confirmed before December 31, 2024, resulting in a Yes outcome. If no changes occur, the contract resolves to No. The resolution criteria consider retirements, deaths, impeachments, or resignations of current justices as well as changes in size due to additions or removals. The status as of December 31, 2024, is used to resolve ambiguous situations.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 365
  • $142,025

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0049
-0.0725
0.9972
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.047
+0.006
  • Manifold
  • 367
  • 95
  • $394

[ACX 2024] In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0453
-0.2393
0.9653
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0229
-0.1642
0.9844
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0042
-0.0668
0.9976
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0199
0.9998
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.046
-0.010
  • Metaculus
  • 363
  • 515

In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0180
-0.1440
0.9882
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0143
-0.1272
0.9909
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0030
-0.0564
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0445
0.9990
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.009
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 367
  • 610
  • $142,419
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0223
-0.1484
0.9838
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0140
-0.1213
0.9908
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0444
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0248
0.9996

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