Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2024?
  • 622
  • 28
  • $255,166
Market participants predict that the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rates by at least one occasion between December 13, 2022 and December 31, 2024. The resolution criteria is met if the Fed cuts its target federal funds rate range once during this timeframe. One market has a specific cutoff date for when events must occur before to trigger resolution (December 31, 2024), while another has no specified end date. Resolution occurs at a specific time, with one market resolving immediately after occurrence but on a standard trading schedule, and the other described as closing and determining "on the first 10 AM ET following the occurrence of the event". The overall sentiment is that a rate cut by the Fed before 2025 is likely to happen within this specified timeframe.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0157
-0.1338
0.9899
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.001
-0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0224
-0.1623
0.9848
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0198
-0.1517
0.9868
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0307
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0307
0.9995
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.001
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 622
  • 28
  • $255,166
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0184
-0.1450
0.9878
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0178
-0.1428
0.9884
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0255
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0255
0.9997

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