Will the US enter a recession before January 2025?
  • 646
  • 1,880
  • $1,479,877
If two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur after revisions, the market resolves to Yes. The resolution criteria are based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) reports for each quarter. If Q1-Q3 2024 data are confirmed positive without waiting for Q4 data, the market may resolve early. The determination is made using the most recently released BEA report for each quarter, with revisions to earlier quarters being used if available. The market expires at 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP or when the event occurs sooner.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 564
  • $603,186

Will there be a recession by the end of 2024? | Occurs

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0081
-0.0943
0.9951
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0464
-0.2425
0.9644
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0276
0.9996
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.012
+0.004
  • Manifold
  • 634
  • 239
  • $842

Recession in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0834
-0.3409
0.9265
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0848
-0.3443
0.9249
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0028
-0.0547
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0116
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.015
-0.004
  • Polymarket
  • 150
  • 1,641
  • $875,848

U.S. Recession in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0022
-0.0483
0.9988
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0025
-0.0508
0.9986
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0199
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0053
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.005
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 646
  • 1,880
  • $1,479,877
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0313
-0.1612
0.9735
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0445
-0.2125
0.9627
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0282
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0148
0.9998

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