A market will resolve to Yes if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported in November 2023 is above 4.0%. The resolution criteria may be affected by a federal government shutdown, which could extend the market's expiration date to six months after the end of the shutdown or the release of the data, whichever comes first. A related question on Metaculus focuses on predicting future monthly U-3 unemployment rates but does not directly address this specific event. This market is part of a prediction contest where Scott Alexander will make the final judgment, as stated in his 2023 prediction contest. Predictions on platforms like Astral Codex Ten are only considered for track record purposes and do not influence Scott Alexander's decision.