Will there be a US government shutdown or funding gap before March 20, 2025?
  • 66
  • 1,825
  • $9,826,688
A resolution will occur if there is any US government shutdown or funding gap between market creation and market close, regardless of whether services are disrupted or workers are furloughed. The event does not need to involve significant disruption for a yes result to be considered valid. The resolution criteria are based on the occurrence of a shutdown or funding gap, with no specific duration or severity requirements. In contrast, a no result requires that there is no government shutdown or funding gap during this period. The resolution will occur before March 20 if any of these conditions are met.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability12Jan19262Feb916232Mar916

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1354
-0.4588
0.8642
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1892
-0.5710
0.7923
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1743
-0.5404
0.8128
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2345
-0.6621
0.7291
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.011
+0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 67
  • 1,704
  • $9,824,902

U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1406
-0.4700
0.8575
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2807
-0.7546
0.6638
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3969
-0.9943
0.5064
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.011
-0.010
  • Overall
  • 66
  • 1,825
  • $9,826,688
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1380
-0.4644
0.8609
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2350
-0.6628
0.7281
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1519
-0.4933
0.8422
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3157
-0.8282
0.6177

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