Will the US enter a recession before January 2024?
  • 550
  • 137
  • $78,528
A recession will be declared if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur in 2023. The resolution criteria is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' definition. Markets will close at the earlier of the occurrence or a specific time after the release of the Advance Estimate of Q4 GDP, which serves as a proxy for the midpoint of 2023. Resolution times vary across platforms, with some markets closing immediately upon release and others waiting until a later time frame. The outcome is determined by the sooner of these two events occurring.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2022OctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1133
-0.4103
0.8918
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0483
-0.2481
0.9626
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
D-
+0.032
-0.092
-0.035
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0016
-0.0411
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0240
-0.1683
0.9836
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0240
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0240
0.9997
Relative Score
A
-0.032
+0.092
+0.035
  • Overall
  • 550
  • 137
  • $78,528
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0575
-0.2257
0.9455
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0361
-0.2082
0.9731
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0170
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0170
0.9998

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