Will there be a US government shutdown before January 2024?
  • 395
  • 2,424
  • $163,299
The US government has experienced multiple shutdowns in the past, with some lasting only a few days and others extending into weeks. A shutdown typically occurs when Congress fails to pass budget legislation on time, causing federal agencies to cease non-essential functions until new funding is enacted. Since 1981, there have been four "true" shutdowns, including the longest-lasting one in December 2018 and January 2019, which lasted for 35 days. A shutdown can be considered complete if at least some portions of the federal government cease operations or result in a furlough for federal employees before January 1, 2024. The resolution criteria for this event is based on reports from credible sources indicating that a shutdown has occurred, rather than just a brief lapse in funding.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2809
-0.7550
0.6635
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2058
-0.6046
0.7693
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
F
+0.075
-0.158
-0.100
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0491
-0.2504
0.9618
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1443
-0.4779
0.8527
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0098
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0084
1.0000
Relative Score
C-
+0.005
-0.009
-0.008
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0107
-0.1090
0.9934
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1065
-0.3951
0.8999
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0236
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0214
0.9998
Relative Score
A
-0.037
+0.085
+0.045
  • Overall
  • 395
  • 2,424
  • $163,299
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1135
-0.3715
0.8729
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1522
-0.4925
0.8406
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0179
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0133
0.9999

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