Will the US ban TikTok before January 2024?
  • 477
  • 1,007
  • $4,013
This question resolves to YES if the US government takes action that makes it more difficult for TikTok to operate in the US without changing ownership by December 31, 2023. This includes changes in rules or legislation, executive orders, and lawsuits brought by a US government entity. The resolution also considers federal-level audits and US government changes to the economic playing field specifically targeted at TikTok. A ban would need to be in effect before January 1, 2024, to qualify as YES. The resolution criteria exclude preemptive actions taken by TikTok itself without any actual US government action.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2022Jan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 478
  • 678
  • $1,343

Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2068
-0.6064
0.7680
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0604
-0.2820
0.9508
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0349
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0088
1.0000
Relative Score
D
+0.023
-0.057
-0.026
  • Metaculus
  • 379
  • 321

Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0394
-0.2214
0.9706
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0255
-0.1740
0.9824
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0314
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0243
0.9997
Relative Score
A
-0.023
+0.057
+0.026
  • Polymarket
  • 44
  • 8
  • $2,670

Tiktok banned in the US in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0126
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0002
-0.0125
0.9999
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0126
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0015
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.011
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 477
  • 1,007
  • $4,013
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0821
-0.2801
0.9129
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0287
-0.1562
0.9777
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0263
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0116
0.9999

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