Will the US ban TikTok before January 2025?
  • 706
  • 2,458
  • $706,145
Several platforms are asking if TikTok will be banned in the United States before January 2025. The ban must be effective to count as a yes. Some markets consider legislation that impacts consumers before the end of 2024, while others focus on bans that are implemented by December 31, 2024. If a ban is imposed and continues to affect users after its implementation or if it directly impacts most Americans, the market will resolve in favor of a yes. The primary source of information for some markets comes from the US federal government, with additional credibility given to reports from reputable sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0030
-0.0563
0.9983
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0062
-0.0821
0.9964
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.001
-0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0108
-0.1095
0.9934
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0234
-0.1659
0.9841
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0555
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0355
0.9993
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.004
+0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 252
  • 2,243
  • $283,212

TikTok banned in the US in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0020
-0.0460
0.9989
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0026
-0.0527
0.9985
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0248
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0050
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.001
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 706
  • 2,458
  • $706,145
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0053
-0.0706
0.9969
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0107
-0.1002
0.9930
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0369
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0169
0.9998

Similar Questions

  • 4,070
  • $123,007,863

Kalshi
C
+0.000
Manifold
C-
+0.010
Polymarket
C-
+0.008
  • 1,436
  • $208,702

Kalshi
D+
+0.010
Manifold
C-
+0.008
Metaculus
A+
-0.048
  • 1,117
  • $324,907

Kalshi
C+
-0.001
Manifold
C
+0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001
  • 574
  • $338,368

Kalshi
A+
-0.044
Manifold
F
+0.044
Polymarket
D
+0.022
  • 705
  • $349,344

Metaculus
A
-0.024
Polymarket
D
+0.024
  • 1,007
  • $4,013

Manifold
D
+0.023
Metaculus
A
-0.023
Polymarket
C+
-0.000