Will the US pass a bill to ban TikTok before 2025?
  • 366
  • 1,436
  • $208,702
Two bills were introduced to ban TikTok in the US or force ByteDance to sell the app: the "Protecting Americans' Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024" (H.R. 7520) and the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act" (H.R. 7521). If either bill is passed, it would likely require ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a ban in the US. The market will resolve to Yes if credible sources report that the government has taken action to force a sale of US-facing components of TikTok within 365 days after the law's enactment or executive order's publication. A consensus among media sources is required for this outcome, with no need for actual implementation.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1286
-0.4440
0.8729
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1521
-0.4943
0.8425
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0169
-0.1393
0.9890
Relative Score
D+
+0.010
-0.018
-0.015
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8281
-2.4079
0.0984
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4534
-1.1189
0.4364
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1347
-0.4574
0.8651
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1779
-0.5478
0.8079
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.017
-0.012
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0538
-0.2639
0.9573
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0849
-0.3445
0.9248
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0414
-0.2275
0.9689
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2657
-0.7247
0.6848
Relative Score
A+
-0.048
+0.107
+0.056
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 1,436
  • $208,702
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3773
-1.1217
0.5876
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2223
-0.6358
0.7447
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1094
-0.3931
0.8922
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1535
-0.4706
0.8273

Similar Questions

  • 4,070
  • $123,007,863

Kalshi
C
+0.000
Manifold
C-
+0.010
Polymarket
C-
+0.008
  • 2,458
  • $706,145

Kalshi
C
+0.000
Manifold
C+
-0.000
Polymarket
C
+0.000
  • 1,117
  • $324,907

Kalshi
C+
-0.001
Manifold
C
+0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001
  • 574
  • $338,368

Kalshi
A+
-0.044
Manifold
F
+0.044
Polymarket
D
+0.022
  • 705
  • $349,344

Metaculus
A
-0.024
Polymarket
D
+0.024
  • 1,007
  • $4,013

Manifold
D
+0.023
Metaculus
A
-0.023
Polymarket
C+
-0.000