Will America ban Zyn nicotine pouches before January 2025?
  • 341
  • 1,117
  • $324,907
If Zyn nicotine pouches are banned by the U.S. federal government before December 31, 2024, then the event is considered resolved. The resolution criteria for these markets include official information from the US federal government and credible reporting reaching a consensus among users. The outcome of this ban will determine if America bans Zyn in 2024. These platforms consider Zyn's federal filing changes as part of their resolutions.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 332
  • $19,140

Zyn banned in the United States in 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9924
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0033
-0.0591
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.013
+0.001
  • Manifold
  • 294
  • 7
  • $30

[Kalshi] Zyn banned in the United States in 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0052
-0.0747
0.9970
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0499
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0499
0.9987
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.007
-0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 342
  • 1,110
  • $305,737

Will America ban Zyn in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0054
-0.0762
0.9969
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0060
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0080
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 341
  • 1,117
  • $324,907
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0075
-0.0890
0.9955
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0046
-0.0700
0.9973
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0322
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0009
-0.0260
0.9995

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