Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?
  • 2,019
  • 495
  • $9,218
This market resolves to "Yes" if cannabis is officially classified as something other than a Schedule I drug in the US by January 1, 2024. Currently, cannabis has been legalized for medicinal purposes in 29 states and recreationally legal in 9 states, with CBD (limited THC content) also being legal in 17 states. The trend towards legalization suggests that it will be rescheduled before 2024, considering the recent legalization of cannabis federally in Canada and the upcoming votes in US states to legalize recreational or medicinal marijuana. A consensus of credible reporting from official government sources and news outlets will be used to resolve this market. The primary resolution criteria is for the Drug Enforcement Agency to reschedule marijuana down from Schedule I by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability201920202021202220232024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 396
  • 100
  • $235

Will Marijuana/Cannabis no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0108
-0.1096
0.9934
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0215
-0.1585
0.9856
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0023
-0.0495
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0339
0.9994
Relative Score
S
-0.079
+0.180
+0.099
  • Metaculus
  • 2,018
  • 379

Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4623
-1.1392
0.4259
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3048
-0.8031
0.6301
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0343
-0.2048
0.9751
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0316
-0.1956
0.9774
Relative Score
F
+0.087
-0.215
-0.105
  • Polymarket
  • 115
  • 16
  • $8,983

Will weed be rescheduled in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0043
-0.0677
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0025
-0.0515
0.9986
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0032
-0.0583
0.9982
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0263
0.9996
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.028
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 2,019
  • 495
  • $9,218
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1591
-0.4388
0.8056
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1096
-0.3377
0.8714
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0133
-0.1042
0.9907
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0111
-0.0853
0.9922

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