Will the recreational marijuana amendment pass in the November 2024 election?
  • 255
  • 171
  • $33,832
Florida Amendment 3 is set to be voted on during the November 5, 2024 US general elections. The amendment seeks to legalize recreational marijuana use in the State of Florida and requires a minimum of 60% majority for passage. Polls indicate strong public support, although opposition campaigns have intensified. If Amendment 3 passes with 60% or more of the vote, as officially reported by the Florida Division of Elections, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3574
-0.9109
0.5581
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4313
-1.0692
0.4632
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6062
-1.5076
0.2736
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4205
-1.0454
0.4766
Relative Score
D
+0.020
-0.036
-0.028
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3102
-0.8141
0.6225
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3059
-0.8055
0.6284
Relative Score
S
-0.116
+0.246
+0.150
  • Polymarket
  • 159
  • 117
  • $33,679

Will Florida legalize weed?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4356
-1.0788
0.4580
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4019
-1.0050
0.5000
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6400
-1.6094
0.2425
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3540
-0.9039
0.5627
Relative Score
A-
-0.016
+0.026
+0.023
  • Overall
  • 255
  • 171
  • $33,832
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3678
-0.9346
0.5462
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3797
-0.9599
0.5306
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6231
-1.5585
0.2580
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3873
-0.9747
0.5196

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