Will third-party candidates receive more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election?
  • 37
  • 3,071
  • $9,871,102
This market resolves to "Yes" if third-party candidates combined receive more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election. The percentage is calculated based on total votes including write-ins, and the threshold includes any amount above 2%, even a small fraction of a percent. The resolution will be determined by data published by official sources once finalized, with back-up options available for clarification. Markets may resolve to "Yes" if third-party candidates combined receive 2% or more of the total popular vote, including write-ins, in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Resolution is contingent upon certified vote totals being made public and verified through reputable sources.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability27Oct3Nov1017241Dec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 31
  • 46
  • $363

Will third party candidates combined receive more than 2% of the popular vote?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3590
-0.9143
0.5560
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2589
-0.7110
0.6945
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3193
-0.8325
0.6100
Relative Score
F
+0.066
-0.228
-0.070
  • Polymarket
  • 54
  • 3,025
  • $9,870,739

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9168
-3.1583
0.0443
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1277
-0.4422
0.8740
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1190
-0.4231
0.8848
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1700
-0.5316
0.8186
Relative Score
A+
-0.066
+0.228
+0.070
  • Overall
  • 37
  • 3,071
  • $9,871,102
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6379
-2.0363
0.3002
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1933
-0.5766
0.7842
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1190
-0.4231
0.8848
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2446
-0.6820
0.7143

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