Will third-party candidates receive more than 10% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election?
  • 343
  • 532
  • $1,081,426
These markets are focused on determining whether third-party candidates will receive more than 10% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election. The resolution criteria for most markets state that if third-party candidates combined receive exactly 10%, they do not meet the threshold, while those receiving more would. Third-party candidates include any non-Democrat or Republican contenders. Markets with a "≥" operator require the percentage to be greater than or equal to X%. If third-party candidates reach this threshold, markets resolve in favor of "Yes", otherwise, they resolve in favor of "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityDec2023Jan2024FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0037
-0.0627
0.9979
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0062
-0.0822
0.9964
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0297
0.9995
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.034
+0.011
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0784
-0.3285
0.9320
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0359
-0.2099
0.9738
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0197
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0222
0.9997
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.034
-0.011
  • Overall
  • 343
  • 532
  • $1,081,426
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0410
-0.1956
0.9650
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0210
-0.1460
0.9851
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0355
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0260
0.9996

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