Will the US ban TikTok before May 2025?
  • 271
  • 4,070
  • $123,007,863
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2024JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 270
  • $3,353,941

Will TikTok be banned by April 30, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6400
-1.6094
0.2425
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5618
-1.3843
0.3170
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4225
-1.0498
0.4741
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1369
-0.4620
0.8623
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.009
+0.003
  • Manifold
  • 100
  • 71
  • $562

TikTok banned in the US by May 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3158
-0.8255
0.6148
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1175
-0.4196
0.8867
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3158
-0.8255
0.6148
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1534
-0.4971
0.8408
Relative Score
C-
+0.010
-0.025
-0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 127
  • 3,999
  • $119,653,360

TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7140
-1.8643
0.1804
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4888
-1.2012
0.3953
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3990
-0.9988
0.5037
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1190
-0.4231
0.8848
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.011
-0.013
  • Overall
  • 271
  • 4,070
  • $123,007,863
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5566
-1.4331
0.3459
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3893
-1.0017
0.5330
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3791
-0.9580
0.5309
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1364
-0.4607
0.8626

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