Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0144 | -0.1278 | 0.9908 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0158 | -0.1343 | 0.9898 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.012 | -0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0258 | -0.1751 | 0.9822 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0284 | -0.1846 | 0.9801 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0014 | -0.0384 | 0.9992 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0280 | 0.9996 |
Relative Score | C- | +0.006 | -0.020 | -0.006 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0051 | -0.0742 | 0.9970 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0157 | -0.1339 | 0.9899 |
30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0020 | -0.0461 | 0.9989 |
7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0033 | -0.0589 | 0.9982 |
Relative Score | B | -0.008 | +0.034 | +0.007 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.0151 | -0.1257 | 0.9900 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0200 | -0.1509 | 0.9866 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0383 | 0.9992 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0014 | -0.0323 | 0.9992 |
Manifold | D | +0.023 |
Metaculus | A | -0.023 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |