Will there be a US government shutdown before January 2025?
  • 366
  • 776
  • $4,185,516
If the US government ceases some operations or undergoes a "shutdown" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline before January 1, 2025, then a credible source will report on it. A qualifying shutdown must lead to a shutdown furlough of federal employees. The term "shutdown" refers to federal agencies discontinuing non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. This includes funding gaps lasting three days or fewer since 1981, except for those with no impact on operations.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0158
-0.1343
0.9898
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.012
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0258
-0.1751
0.9822
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0284
-0.1846
0.9801
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0384
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0280
0.9996
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.020
-0.006
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0051
-0.0742
0.9970
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0157
-0.1339
0.9899
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0461
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0033
-0.0589
0.9982
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.034
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 776
  • $4,185,516
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0151
-0.1257
0.9900
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0200
-0.1509
0.9866
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0383
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0323
0.9992

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