Will Ethena collapse before January 2025?
  • 274
  • 3,922
  • $314,790
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethena stays below 90 cents for a period of 12 hours or more in 2024. The resolution source is CoinGecko, with data from the USDe page, and a 12-hour period starting on the last day will count. Market participants must verify the high price on the coin's chart to determine if the market resolves "Yes". If CoinGecko stops providing necessary data, a consensus of credible sources may be used to resolve the market. The market resolution criteria is primarily based on the final high price for 12 hours or more below 0.90000.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2024JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 250
  • 6
  • $39

Ethena USDe crash/depeg in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0171
-0.1403
0.9888
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0172
-0.1404
0.9888
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0171
-0.1403
0.9888
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0171
-0.1403
0.9888
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.025
-0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 275
  • 3,916
  • $314,751

Ethena crash in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0062
-0.0822
0.9964
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0161
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0040
1.0000
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.025
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 274
  • 3,922
  • $314,790
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0101
-0.0984
0.9936
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0117
-0.1113
0.9926
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0087
-0.0782
0.9944
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0086
-0.0722
0.9944

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