Will Tether collapse before January 2023?
  • 353
  • 384
  • $429
Tether (USDT) has long been suspected to not have sufficient reserves to back its value, with many using it for trading despite this. A $1 million bounty remains unclaimed for information on Tether's backing. The value of USDT is considered "unpegged" if it falls below 0.9 USD for more than one consecutive week in 2022. This can be determined by tracking the price on multiple exchanges, including FTX, Binance, and Coinbase. If any of these conditions are met - such as USDT trading at less than 0.50 USD continuously for over 7 days or being suspended on all three exchanges - the market resolves in favor of "yes".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022JulOctJan2023

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 285
  • 89
  • $429

Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" in 2022?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0248
-0.1713
0.9830
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0366
-0.2123
0.9732
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0160
-0.1352
0.9897
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0134
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.010
-0.023
-0.011
  • Metaculus
  • 353
  • 295

Will Tether collapse before 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0554
-0.2683
0.9558
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0276
-0.1816
0.9807
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0122
-0.1168
0.9924
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0038
-0.0640
0.9978
Relative Score
B+
-0.010
+0.023
+0.011
  • Overall
  • 353
  • 384
  • $429
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0401
-0.2198
0.9694
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0321
-0.1969
0.9770
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0141
-0.1260
0.9910
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0387
0.9989

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