WIll Argentina end its central bank before January 2025?
  • 398
  • 8
  • $29,890
Argentina's central bank will be abolished or its powers and duties transferred to a new monetary authority by December 31, 2024. The event can occur if the government declares the bank non-operational or creates a new central bank immediately thereafter. Abolition is also considered a payout criterion if a new central bank replaces it or transfers its functions to one. Alternatively, if no longer has an official currency and only foreign currencies like the American dollar serve as legal tender, that would be within the criteria for resolution. The market resolves in favor of "Yes" if these conditions are met by December 31, 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0049
-0.0726
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0066
-0.0848
0.9961
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0305
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
A-
-0.011
+0.053
+0.008
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0191
-0.1486
0.9874
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0246
-0.1707
0.9831
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0183
-0.1454
0.9880
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0183
-0.1454
0.9880
Relative Score
D+
+0.011
-0.053
-0.008
  • Overall
  • 398
  • 8
  • $29,890
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0120
-0.1106
0.9923
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0156
-0.1278
0.9896
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0096
-0.0879
0.9938
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0092
-0.0777
0.9940

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