If a new justice is confirmed to the Supreme Court before 2024, the event will resolve in favor of yes. The outcome depends on the exclusive authority of Scott Alexander, who determined that most likely justices dying or resigning, but court packing would also qualify as changes in composition. The resolution criteria specify that predictions will only count for Metaculus track records and will not be evaluated by Alexander. A change in membership size before 2050 is considered relevant to the broader question of a potential change in the Supreme Court's composition. A decrease in conservative justices on January 20, 2025, is also seen as related, but a more specific and narrowly focused event.