Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard?
  • 513
  • 163
  • $128,069
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether institutions of higher education that receive federal financial assistance can use race as a factor in admissions. A complete victory for the plaintiffs would require a ruling that bans racial preferences entirely, while a partial victory would allow for some uses of race in admissions but not for institutions receiving federal funding. The resolution criteria are based on the specifics of the Supreme Court's decision. The market will close and expire when the first 10:00 AM following the release of the ruling or December 31, 2024, whichever comes first. Participants must familiarize themselves with the detailed rules and conditions outlined in the rulebook for each platform.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022JulOctJan2023Apr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0361
-0.2107
0.9736
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0714
-0.3109
0.9395
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1444
-0.4780
0.8526
Relative Score
C-
+0.010
-0.026
-0.010
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0576
-0.2744
0.9536
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0625
-0.2876
0.9487
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0350
-0.2070
0.9746
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0257
-0.1748
0.9822
Relative Score
D
+0.017
-0.039
-0.020
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0669
-0.2993
0.9442
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0635
-0.2904
0.9477
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0287
-0.1856
0.9798
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0266
-0.1782
0.9815
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.026
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 513
  • 163
  • $128,069
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0535
-0.2615
0.9571
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0658
-0.2963
0.9453
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0644
-0.2796
0.9420
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0656
-0.2770
0.9388

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