Will a #1 seed win the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament?
  • 131
  • 61
  • $82,646
This market resolves to "Yes" if one of the four top-seeded teams in the 2025 NCAA Tournament wins the championship, and "No" otherwise. The resolution is contingent on the tournament's conclusion by May 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, with official information from the NCAA serving as the resolution source. If a #1 seed does not win, alternative outcomes among top-seeded teams are considered valid for this market. No additional factors influence the outcome of this market beyond tournament progression and result. The market's result is definitive, with no further appeals or reconsiderations allowed.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityDec2024Jan2025FebMarApr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 124
  • 17
  • $131

Will a #1 seed win the 2025 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1705
-0.5327
0.8179
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1666
-0.5244
0.8233
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1705
-0.5327
0.8179
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1403
-0.4692
0.8580
Relative Score
D-
+0.030
-0.072
-0.034
  • Polymarket
  • 13
  • 44
  • $82,514

Will a #1 seed win the NCAA Tournament?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
S
0.0000
-0.0005
1.0000
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0017
-0.0417
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0005
1.0000
Relative Score
A
-0.030
+0.072
+0.034
  • Overall
  • 131
  • 61
  • $82,646
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0853
-0.2666
0.9090
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0841
-0.2831
0.9112
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1705
-0.5327
0.8179
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0701
-0.2349
0.9290

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