Will Houston make the Final Four in the 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament?
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  • $4,171,449
Several markets are being created to predict whether teams related to Houston, specifically in the context of a men's college basketball tournament, will qualify for or advance to later rounds of competition. One market focuses on a specific team's (Houston) qualification for a semifinal round. Another market is broader, looking at all teams that might make it to the Final Four, including Houston. The resolution criteria vary among these markets: one resolves when a specific team qualifies for a semifinal, while another does not provide resolution criteria. Overall, these markets capture different aspects of the same event, with some focusing on specific outcomes and others providing more general predictions about which teams will advance further in the tournament.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2024OctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2025
-0.5978
0.7740
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2561
-0.7054
0.6984
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2025
-0.5978
0.7740
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.001
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6363
-1.5980
0.2458
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6510
-1.6441
0.2328
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6243
-1.5611
0.2568
7 Days Before Close
F
0.2739
-0.7410
0.6734
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1600
-0.5108
0.8321
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1682
-0.5278
0.8211
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1806
-0.5534
0.8042
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.005
+0.003
  • Overall
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Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3329
-0.9022
0.6173
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3584
-0.9591
0.5841
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6243
-1.5611
0.2568
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2190
-0.6307
0.7505

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