This question considers whether a new country will join NATO in 2023, with Sweden and Finland's accession to the alliance counted as a new country. The outcome is determined solely by Scott Alexander's judgment, based on his exclusive authority for resolving this specific prediction contest. Predictions are considered valid only for tracking purposes on Metaculus, with no evaluation by Scott Alexander. Related questions also exist on Metaculus, including those about state withdrawals and NATO membership in 2025. The resolution criteria is straightforward: if Sweden and Finland complete the accession process, it counts as a new country joining NATO.