Will Sweden join NATO before January 2024?
  • 667
  • 2,165
  • $22,880
A Swedish decision on joining NATO has sparked international attention, with many countries and analysts weighing in. Historically, Sweden has maintained a policy of neutrality, but the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought it closer to cooperation with NATO. In recent months, Stockholm and Helsinki have ruled out immediate membership applications, yet remain open to exploring possibilities. For this market to resolve positively, an official declaration by NATO must be issued before January 1, 2024, formally welcoming Sweden as a full member state. The resolution of the market will depend on confirmation from credible sources such as the official NATO website.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022JulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 668
  • 928
  • $6,565

Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5093
-1.2505
0.3724
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5437
-1.3371
0.3355
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0372
-0.2141
0.9727
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0236
0.9997
Relative Score
D
+0.015
-0.077
-0.013
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4116
-1.0261
0.4877
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5156
-1.2662
0.3654
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0098
-0.1041
0.9940
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0277
0.9996
Relative Score
A
-0.019
+0.085
+0.018
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0961
-0.3711
0.9122
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1306
-0.4484
0.8703
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1089
-0.4005
0.8971
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0455
0.9989
Relative Score
D
+0.019
-0.048
-0.022
  • Overall
  • 667
  • 2,165
  • $22,880
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3390
-0.8825
0.5908
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3967
-1.0172
0.5238
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0519
-0.2396
0.9546
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0323
0.9994

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