Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?
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  • $9
The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness aims to foster a collaborative approach to strengthen national, regional, and global capacities against future pandemics. The proposed treaty would enhance international cooperation in areas such as alert systems, data-sharing, research, and the production and distribution of medical counter-measures like vaccines and personal protective equipment. To be adopted, the treaty is scheduled to undergo key milestones by 2022 and 2024, with a focus on adopting the instrument by 2024. The adoption of this treaty will resolve as Yes if at least 10 countries ratify it before December 31, 2024. This specific question only considers new treaties that have not been ratified by any nation as of June 1, 2022.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2022OctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4042
-1.0100
0.4971
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2187
-0.6305
0.7513
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0239
-0.1680
0.9837
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0239
-0.1680
0.9837
Relative Score
F
+0.054
-0.121
-0.071
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2103
-0.6136
0.7630
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1263
-0.4392
0.8757
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0164
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0142
0.9999
Relative Score
A+
-0.054
+0.121
+0.071
  • Overall
  • 931
  • 188
  • $9
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3073
-0.8118
0.6300
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1725
-0.5348
0.8135
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0121
-0.0922
0.9918
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0121
-0.0911
0.9918

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