Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0121 | -0.1165 | 0.9924 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0233 | -0.1655 | 0.9842 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0166 | -0.1377 | 0.9893 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0134 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.003 | +0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0090 | -0.0998 | 0.9945 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0251 | -0.1724 | 0.9828 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0210 | -0.1567 | 0.9859 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0151 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.003 | -0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0106 | -0.1082 | 0.9935 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0242 | -0.1689 | 0.9835 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0188 | -0.1472 | 0.9876 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0142 | 0.9999 |
Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
Metaculus | F | +0.054 |
Polymarket | A | -0.017 |