Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?
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A second debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was proposed after the first ABC debate, with the condition that it would take place if both candidates agreed. The resolution criteria for one of these markets is a consensus of credible reporting, stating there must be a second debate by November 4, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET. In another market, the resolution source also relies on a consensus of credible reporting and specifies that it will resolve to "Yes" if there's a second debate between Trump and Harris before a certain deadline, while resolving to "No" otherwise. A more recent market simply resolves to yes or no based on whether a second debate has taken place. In all cases, the outcome is contingent upon both candidates agreeing to participate in another debate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability15Sep22296Oct1320273Nov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9924
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0233
-0.1655
0.9842
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0166
-0.1377
0.9893
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0134
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.003
+0.002
  • Polymarket
  • 55
  • 1,861
  • $3,628,813

Will there be another debate?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0090
-0.0998
0.9945
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0251
-0.1724
0.9828
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0210
-0.1567
0.9859
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0151
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 55
  • 3,030
  • $3,638,379
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0106
-0.1082
0.9935
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0242
-0.1689
0.9835
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0188
-0.1472
0.9876
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0142
0.9999

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