Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?
  • 1,083
  • 2,457
  • $2,389,351
Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? The outcome depends on whether the United States Olympic Team are the unique highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics, with resolution criteria including: the US team must be ahead of all other teams. Resolution is also conditional upon the event taking place before 2027.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2021Jan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 283
  • 19
  • $224

[Metaculus] Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0309
-0.1933
0.9780
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0443
-0.2362
0.9663
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0460
-0.2413
0.9647
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0609
-0.2835
0.9503
Relative Score
B+
-0.010
+0.025
+0.010
  • Metaculus
  • 1,067
  • 77

Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0733
-0.3156
0.9375
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0806
-0.3338
0.9297
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0545
-0.2657
0.9567
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0391
-0.2204
0.9709
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.033
-0.011
  • Polymarket
  • 30
  • 2,361
  • $2,389,127

USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0024
-0.0497
0.9987
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0085
1.0000
Relative Score
A
-0.024
+0.110
+0.019
  • Overall
  • 1,083
  • 2,457
  • $2,389,351
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0357
-0.1885
0.9713
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0424
-0.2066
0.9649
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0502
-0.2535
0.9607
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0334
-0.1708
0.9737

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