Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
  • 1,087
  • 95
  • $136
The markets are centered on France's performance in the 2024 Paris Olympics, with a focus on their placement within the top 5 countries by total number of medals won. The resolution criteria for these markets vary slightly between platforms, but all ultimately hinge on whether France achieves a strong medal haul compared to its recent Olympic performances. These markets tap into historical trends and recent results, noting that host countries tend to outperform in previous Olympics. The markets offer a unique opportunity to gauge the impact of hosting the Olympics at home on a nation's performance.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2021Jan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0935
-0.3648
0.9152
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1033
-0.3878
0.9037
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0935
-0.3648
0.9152
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0499
-0.2528
0.9610
Relative Score
S
-0.077
+0.159
+0.103
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1708
-0.5331
0.8176
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2327
-0.6585
0.7316
30 Days Before Close
F
0.2630
-0.7191
0.6888
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2356
-0.6643
0.7275
Relative Score
F
+0.077
-0.159
-0.103
  • Overall
  • 1,087
  • 95
  • $136
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1321
-0.4490
0.8664
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1680
-0.5232
0.8176
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1782
-0.5420
0.8020
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1427
-0.4586
0.8443

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