Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9237 | -3.2470 | 0.0404 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4124 | -1.0278 | 0.4867 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0334 | -0.2017 | 0.9759 |
7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0029 | -0.0557 | 0.9984 |
Relative Score | C- | +0.007 | -0.022 | -0.007 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0081 | -0.0943 | 0.9951 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0281 | -0.1836 | 0.9803 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0324 | -0.1985 | 0.9767 |
7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0030 | -0.0566 | 0.9983 |
Relative Score | B | -0.007 | +0.022 | +0.007 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4659 | -1.6706 | 0.5178 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2203 | -0.6057 | 0.7335 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0329 | -0.2001 | 0.9763 |
7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0030 | -0.0561 | 0.9983 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
Manifold | B | -0.006 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |
Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |