Will the TIME Person of the Year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
  • 1,443
  • 211
  • $322
Every year since 1992, Time magazine has awarded its Person of the Year to the president-elect. Since 2000, this has been a consistent pattern. In 2024, if the Time person of the year is the US president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes called by the Associated Press, the outcome will be resolved positively. Trustworthy users are encouraged to report any known and unambiguous outcomes before they are officially resolved. The resolution criteria for this event are based on the publication of Time magazine's Person of the Year award in 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability2021202220232024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 406
  • 93
  • $322

[Metaculus] Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1235
-0.4329
0.8793
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1013
-0.3831
0.9061
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1012
-0.3829
0.9062
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0578
-0.2749
0.9534
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.005
-0.004
  • Metaculus
  • 1,439
  • 118

Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0900
-0.3568
0.9191
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0927
-0.3631
0.9161
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0547
-0.2664
0.9564
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0640
-0.2918
0.9471
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.005
+0.004
  • Overall
  • 1,443
  • 211
  • $322
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1067
-0.3948
0.8992
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0970
-0.3731
0.9111
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0779
-0.3247
0.9313
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0609
-0.2833
0.9503

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