Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year?
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This question will resolve as "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named Time magazine's Person of the Year in 2022. The resolution criteria include being one of four or fewer people or entities named, with specific examples including being part of an entity like the Ukrainian people and the UN, but not just his face being on the cover without a direct reference to him. It resolves positively even if he is named posthumously.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2022MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0973
-0.3738
0.9108
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0954
-0.3695
0.9130
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0453
-0.2392
0.9654
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0548
-0.2666
0.9564
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.020
+0.007
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1220
-0.4296
0.8811
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1123
-0.4082
0.8930
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0745
-0.3188
0.9362
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0925
-0.3627
0.9163
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.020
-0.007
  • Overall
  • 278
  • 548
  • $485
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1096
-0.4017
0.8960
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1039
-0.3888
0.9030
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0599
-0.2790
0.9508
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0736
-0.3146
0.9363

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