Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year?
  • 87
  • 1,963
  • $85,062
If Taylor Swift is named Time's Person of the Year for 2023, this outcome is considered. The resolution criteria are based on how Time specifically references Taylor Swift in their announcement. The market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift is directly mentioned as the winner, regardless of whether she is alone or with another person or thing. If the announcement includes a group or concept where Taylor Swift's name was not explicitly used, the market will resolve according to the most predictive submission related to that concept or group.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability17Sep241Oct81522295Nov1219263Dec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7056
-1.8326
0.1871
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6536
-1.6527
0.2305
Relative Score
A
-0.029
+0.082
+0.030
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9063
-3.0370
0.0503
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.9030
-3.0011
0.0523
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8798
-2.7806
0.0660
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8497
-2.5481
0.0846
Relative Score
F
+0.106
-0.469
-0.080
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6249
-1.5630
0.2562
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6531
-1.6509
0.2310
Relative Score
A
-0.038
+0.124
+0.034
  • Overall
  • 87
  • 1,963
  • $85,062
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7456
-2.1442
0.1645
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.7366
-2.1016
0.1713
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8798
-2.7806
0.0660
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8497
-2.5481
0.0846

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