Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.2817 | -0.7566 | 0.6624 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3048 | -0.8032 | 0.6300 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2817 | -0.7566 | 0.6624 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.004 | +0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7902 | -2.1978 | 0.1240 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.8385 | -2.4733 | 0.0917 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8019 | -2.2582 | 0.1160 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2840 | -0.7613 | 0.6591 |
Relative Score | C | +0.005 | -0.080 | -0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9050 | -3.0228 | 0.0511 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7782 | -2.1386 | 0.1324 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.7982 | -2.2388 | 0.1185 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2812 | -0.7556 | 0.6631 |
Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.076 | +0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6590 | -1.9924 | 0.2791 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6405 | -1.8050 | 0.2847 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8000 | -2.2485 | 0.1172 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.2823 | -0.7578 | 0.6615 |
Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
Manifold | D | +0.015 |
Polymarket | B+ | -0.010 |
Kalshi | B- | -0.003 |
Manifold | C | +0.002 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |