Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars?
  • 216
  • 390
  • $274,653
If Oppenheimer has won Best Picture at the 96th Academy Awards, then Yes. The market resolves based on official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS websites or data from their website and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, as well as a consensus of credible reporting. In case of no winner being declared by December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to No. If Oppenheimer is not officially nominated for Best Picture when the nominees are announced, the market immediately resolves to No.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2023OctNovDecJan2024FebMar

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 210
  • $104,603

Will Oppenheimer win Best Picture at the Oscars? | Oppenheimer

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3249
-0.8440
0.6022
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2140
-0.6211
0.7578
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0144
-0.1278
0.9908
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.005
+0.003
  • Manifold
  • 217
  • 249
  • $1,537

What film will win best picture for the 2024 Oscars? | Oppenheimer

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3464
-0.8881
0.5729
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2456
-0.6843
0.7134
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0382
-0.2174
0.9718
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0040
-0.0652
0.9977
Relative Score
C-
+0.005
-0.015
-0.006
  • Polymarket
  • 54
  • 141
  • $168,513

Will "Oppenheimer" win the Oscar for Best Picture?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0210
-0.1567
0.9859
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0161
-0.1358
0.9896
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0240
-0.1684
0.9836
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.005
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 216
  • 390
  • $274,653
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2308
-0.6296
0.7204
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1586
-0.4804
0.8203
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0255
-0.1712
0.9821
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0039
-0.0647
0.9978

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