Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6400 | -1.6094 | 0.2425 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5790 | -1.4309 | 0.2998 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.3481 | -0.8916 | 0.5707 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5329 | -1.3093 | 0.3469 |
Relative Score | A | -0.023 | +0.052 | +0.029 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5013 | -1.2310 | 0.3813 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4580 | -1.1293 | 0.4310 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.3772 | -0.9524 | 0.5319 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5267 | -1.2937 | 0.3535 |
Relative Score | D | +0.018 | -0.041 | -0.023 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5402 | -1.3280 | 0.3392 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5251 | -1.2897 | 0.3552 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5476 | -1.3471 | 0.3315 |
Relative Score | D | +0.019 | -0.047 | -0.021 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5605 | -1.3895 | 0.3210 |
Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5207 | -1.2833 | 0.3620 |
30 Days Before Close | F | 0.3627 | -0.9220 | 0.5513 |
7 Days Before Close | F | 0.5357 | -1.3167 | 0.3440 |
Kalshi | B- | -0.002 |
Manifold | B | -0.005 |
Metaculus | F | +0.195 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |