Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
  • 177
  • 2,801
  • $14,550,272
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated as Secretary of Health and Human Services by Donald Trump's transition team on November 14, 2024. He is described as an anti-vaccine activist and has expressed skepticism about the safety and efficacy of vaccines. If confirmed by the US Senate before April 1, 2025, or if announced that Trump is no longer seeking Kennedy's confirmation, the nomination will immediately be withdrawn. The market resolves to Yes if the Senate confirms Kennedy before this date and No otherwise. Additionally, recess appointments without Senate confirmation are not counted towards a resolution of Yes.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2024OctNovDecJan2025Feb

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 100
  • $10,941,800

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services by Dec 31, 2026? | Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0676
-0.3011
0.9435
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0714
-0.3110
0.9394
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0361
-0.2107
0.9736
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
-0.001
+0.002
  • Manifold
  • 177
  • 230
  • $3,113

If Trump wins, will RFK Jr. become secretary of health and human services?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0708
-0.3094
0.9401
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2604
-0.7140
0.6924
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0280
-0.1833
0.9804
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0118
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.005
-0.006
  • Metaculus
  • 80
  • 152

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0208
-0.1556
0.9861
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0298
-0.1894
0.9789
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0196
-0.1508
0.9870
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0071
-0.0882
0.9958
Relative Score
A
-0.020
+0.058
+0.019
  • Polymarket
  • 90
  • 2,419
  • $3,605,359

RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0812
-0.3355
0.9289
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0576
-0.2745
0.9536
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0462
-0.2421
0.9645
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0274
0.9996
Relative Score
C
+0.005
-0.014
-0.005
  • Overall
  • 177
  • 2,801
  • $14,550,272
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0601
-0.2754
0.9497
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1048
-0.3722
0.8911
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0325
-0.1967
0.9764
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0420
0.9986

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