Will J.D. Vance be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President?
  • 224
  • 3,052
  • $6,516,724
Resolves to "Yes" if J.D. Vance is chosen by the Republican National Committee as the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 Republican ticket. If the RNC does not choose a running mate, or if Vance is replaced before election day, this market resolves to "No". The resolution criteria include a consensus of official GOP sources and will be based on events occurring up to but not including election day in November 2024. Since there are no sub-questions here, the outcome is resolved as soon as J.D. Vance is chosen by the RNC or deemed unqualified for nomination, whichever occurs first.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024FebMarAprMayJunJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 222
  • 1,844
  • $64,431

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President) | J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9117
-3.0974
0.0472
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8395
-2.4797
0.0911
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7033
-1.8240
0.1890
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5492
-1.3512
0.3299
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.083
+0.016
  • Metaculus
  • 316
  • 223

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9326
-3.3734
0.0355
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3860
-0.9709
0.5205
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8051
-2.2759
0.1137
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5368
-1.3193
0.3427
Relative Score
D+
+0.015
-0.092
-0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 173
  • 985
  • $6,452,293

Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8892
-2.8647
0.0603
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8362
-2.4584
0.0932
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7353
-1.9484
0.1639
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4610
-1.1363
0.4274
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.018
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 224
  • 3,052
  • $6,516,724
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9112
-3.1119
0.0477
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6872
-1.9697
0.2349
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7479
-2.0161
0.1555
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5157
-1.2689
0.3667

Similar Questions

Will Republicans win control of the US Senate in 2024?
  • 1,592
  • $4,344,493
Kalshi
B
-0.006
Manifold
C
+0.003
Metaculus
C
+0.004
Polymarket
C+
-0.002
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic nominee for Vice President?
  • 3,616
  • $12,981,560
Manifold
A-
-0.012
Polymarket
D+
+0.012
Will the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President be a woman?
  • 195
  • $294,028
Manifold
A-
-0.016
Polymarket
D
+0.016
Will Tim Kaine (D) win the 2024 Virginia Senate seat?
  • 77
  • $57,711
Manifold
B-
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.002
Will Sheldon Whitehouse (D) win the 2024 Rhode Island Senate seat?
  • 51
  • $31,729
Manifold
C+
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.002
Will Jim Justice (R) win the 2024 West Virginia Senate seat?
  • 43
  • $24,747
Manifold
C
+0.000
Polymarket
C+
-0.000