Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3673 | -0.9316 | 0.5450 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2004 | -0.5936 | 0.7769 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0457 | -0.2405 | 0.9650 |
7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0132 | -0.1218 | 0.9917 |
Relative Score | A- | -0.016 | +0.030 | +0.022 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3540 | -0.9039 | 0.5627 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2201 | -0.6332 | 0.7493 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0306 | -0.1924 | 0.9782 |
7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0110 | -0.1109 | 0.9932 |
Relative Score | D | +0.016 | -0.030 | -0.022 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | F | 0.3607 | -0.9177 | 0.5538 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.2102 | -0.6134 | 0.7631 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0382 | -0.2165 | 0.9716 |
7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0121 | -0.1164 | 0.9924 |
Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
Manifold | F | +0.039 |
Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
Manifold | C | +0.003 |
Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
Manifold | A | -0.021 |
Metaculus | D+ | +0.015 |
Polymarket | C | +0.002 |
Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
Manifold | D | +0.016 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |