Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?
  • 1,232
  • 152
  • $43
Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? This market explores the likelihood of Twitter taking action against tweets from the New York Times for spreading misinformation. If Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes with a link that contradicts its claims, this outcome is considered positive. The resolution criteria requires "flagging" to be defined as putting a link in a tweet that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Trustworthy users are encouraged to resolve this market if the outcome is known and unambiguous, before 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability2022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2521
-0.6973
0.7042
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1562
-0.5030
0.8371
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0298
-0.1895
0.9789
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.001
-0.008
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2567
-0.7065
0.6977
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1610
-0.5128
0.8308
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0698
-0.3067
0.9412
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0331
-0.2008
0.9761
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.001
+0.008
  • Overall
  • 1,232
  • 152
  • $43
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2544
-0.7019
0.7009
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1586
-0.5079
0.8339
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0498
-0.2481
0.9601
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0166
-0.1054
0.9880

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