Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI before January 2025?
  • 369
  • 1,897
  • $959,286
This prediction event considers whether OpenAI will announce the creation of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before January 1, 2025. The resolution criteria for "Yes" is that OpenAI must officially declare AGI creation by December 31, 2024, with official information from the company or its representative serving as a primary source. Alternative credible reporting consensus will also be considered. If no announcement is made by OpenAI before January 1, 2025, the market resolves to "No". The event focuses on OpenAI's public declaration of AGI creation, rather than actual creation.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 362
  • $49,448

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? | Before 2025

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0037
-0.0628
0.9979
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.008
+0.001
  • Manifold
  • 142
  • 5
  • $2,654

Polymarket Mirrors | https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-announce-it-has-achieved-agi-in-2024/will-openai-announce-it-has-achieved-agi-in-2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0001
-0.0118
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0008
-0.0292
0.9996
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0118
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0118
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.009
-0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 369
  • 1,892
  • $907,185

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0094
-0.1020
0.9943
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0060
-0.0805
0.9965
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0243
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0121
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.008
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 369
  • 1,897
  • $959,286
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0040
-0.0550
0.9976
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0035
-0.0575
0.9980
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0188
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0147
0.9999

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