Will Meta AI (Llama) be available in Siri in 2024?
  • 254
  • 14
  • $30,183
A partnership between Meta AI and Apple is being considered, with a resolution criteria of an announcement before January 1, 2025. The availability of Meta AI's Llama model in Siri in any part of the world will be counted as a success, regardless of whether it's initially released in the US or elsewhere. A specific update to the Llama model's name will also trigger a resolution. This market is focused on the potential collaboration between Apple and Meta AI for integrating their AI technology into Siri. The outcome will be determined by the company's official release of a new AI-powered feature with Llama, which could potentially happen in 2024 or later.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2024JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9801
-4.6052
0.0101
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0156
-0.1334
0.9900
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.015
-0.010
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0123
-0.1177
0.9923
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0192
-0.1492
0.9873
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0084
-0.0963
0.9949
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0057
-0.0787
0.9967
Relative Score
B+
-0.008
+0.015
+0.010
  • Overall
  • 254
  • 14
  • $30,183
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4962
-2.3614
0.5012
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0174
-0.1413
0.9886
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0043
-0.0532
0.9974
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0444
0.9983

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