Will Google Gemini be available in Siri in 2024?
  • 254
  • 15
  • $37,971
If Google Gemini is available for use by Siri, either globally or within the US, before 2024, then yes. The availability of a model rebranded under a new name would also be counted as "yes." A partnership between Apple and Google that results in the release of a new AI model tied to the Google Gemini name would satisfy this condition. The market resolves based on whether Google releases a model with the Gemini name, regardless of its distribution channel. If available anywhere in the world, or if released within the US before 2024, it counts as a "yes" resolution.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMay2024JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2116
-0.6162
0.7612
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1005
-0.3813
0.9070
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0081
-0.0943
0.9951
Relative Score
F
+0.046
-0.091
-0.062
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0341
-0.2041
0.9753
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0478
-0.2467
0.9630
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0106
-0.1084
0.9935
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0048
-0.0722
0.9972
Relative Score
A+
-0.046
+0.091
+0.062
  • Overall
  • 254
  • 15
  • $37,971
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1228
-0.4101
0.8683
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0742
-0.3140
0.9350
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0053
-0.0592
0.9967
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0065
-0.0832
0.9962

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