Will GPT-5 be announced before January 2025?
  • 513
  • 987
  • $417,694
A high-level announcement of GPT-5 is expected before the end of 2024, with only officially confirmed public statements from OpenAI counting towards the resolution. The product must be explicitly named GPT-5 or a successor to GPT-4, and unofficial sources such as employee interviews will not suffice. The market may not resolve until its timeframe expires and an official announcement has been made. Officially confirmed announcements can be found on OpenAI's website at https://openai.com/. A resolution of "Yes" indicates that GPT-5 was announced before the end of 2024, while a "No" resolution means it was not.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023Jan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 514
  • 91
  • $140

Will GPT-5 be announced in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5071
-1.2451
0.3748
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2938
-0.7810
0.6453
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0027
-0.0539
0.9985
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0022
-0.0484
0.9988
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.019
-0.012
  • Polymarket
  • 275
  • 896
  • $417,554

GPT-5 not announced in 2024? | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1722
-0.5361
0.8156
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1514
-0.4928
0.8435
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0041
-0.0661
0.9977
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0121
0.9999
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.019
+0.012
  • Overall
  • 513
  • 987
  • $417,694
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3397
-0.8906
0.5952
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2226
-0.6369
0.7444
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0034
-0.0600
0.9981
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0302
0.9993

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