Will GPT-5 be released before January 2025?
  • 656
  • 5,346
  • $979,181
If GPT-5 is publicly released before the end of December 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A closed beta or private access does not suffice for this market's resolution, with products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar not counted. The primary source of resolution is official information from OpenAI, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting. Any deviation from the expected naming scheme may affect the market's resolution criteria.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 385
  • $192,452

Will GPT-5 be released by December 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2217
-0.6364
0.7471
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.009
+0.000
  • Manifold
  • 655
  • 3,359
  • $32,811

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5315
-1.3057
0.3484
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2590
-0.7111
0.6944
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0039
-0.0648
0.9978
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0173
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.009
-0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 154
  • 1,987
  • $753,918

GPT-5 released in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0506
-0.2549
0.9603
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0392
-0.2206
0.9709
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0455
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0080
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.002
-0.002
  • Overall
  • 656
  • 5,346
  • $979,181
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2774
-0.7512
0.6720
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1733
-0.5227
0.8041
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0504
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0152
0.9999

Similar Questions

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI before January 2025?
  • 1,897
  • $959,286
Kalshi
C+
-0.001
Manifold
C+
-0.000
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will GPT-5 be announced before January 2025?
  • 987
  • $417,694
Manifold
C-
+0.009
Polymarket
B+
-0.009
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
  • 638
  • $132,004
Kalshi
C
+0.003
Manifold
C+
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.003
Will OpenAI reach a settlement with NYT before January 2025?
  • 265
  • $21,987
Manifold
B
-0.006
Polymarket
C-
+0.006
Will GPT-4.5 be released before July 2024?
  • 99
  • $11,573
Kalshi
S
-0.153
Manifold
F
+0.153
Will an LLM at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?
  • 125
  • $19
Manifold
A-
-0.015
Metaculus
D
+0.015