Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0068 | -0.0863 | 0.9960 |
30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0016 | -0.0408 | 0.9991 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.017 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0019 | -0.0445 | 0.9990 |
Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0011 | -0.0330 | 0.9994 |
30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0058 | 1.0000 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0111 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | B | -0.004 | +0.037 | +0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0052 | -0.0746 | 0.9970 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0106 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0065 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.005 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0033 | -0.0579 | 0.9981 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0043 | -0.0646 | 0.9975 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0226 | 0.9995 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0195 | 0.9997 |
Manifold | A | -0.019 |
Metaculus | D+ | +0.015 |
Polymarket | C- | +0.006 |