Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?
  • 364
  • 1,361
  • $453,721
A recent study has suggested the potential presence of the Meissner effect in copper-substituted lead apatite near room temperature. The prediction markets consider whether firm, peer-reviewed evidence or independent/laboratory verification confirming this finding will be published by December 31, 2024. The resolution criteria for these markets vary, but most focus on a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of any replication attempts. Replication of the Meissner effect's claims will be considered sufficient to resolve the market to "Yes", while no confirmation or further evidence will resolve it to "No". A definitive consensus among experts is required before these markets can confirm their findings, ensuring a rigorous evaluation of the scientific evidence.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0068
-0.0863
0.9960
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.017
-0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0019
-0.0445
0.9990
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0011
-0.0330
0.9994
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0058
1.0000
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0111
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.004
+0.037
+0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0052
-0.0746
0.9970
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0106
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0065
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.005
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 364
  • 1,361
  • $453,721
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0033
-0.0579
0.9981
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0043
-0.0646
0.9975
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0226
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0195
0.9997

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