Will the LK-99 room-temperature superconductor replicate?
  • 7
  • 1,275
  • $3,594,640
The first independent attempt at replicating LK-99's room temperature superconductivity must confirm the material's synthesis and exhibit superconducting properties with a critical temperature above 400 K and resistivity below 10^-10 Ω·cm. The replication must be conducted by researchers independent from the original study authors. A successful confirmation includes reproduction of the synthesis, main findings verification through independent testing, and publication in a reputable journal. If no credible reports of an attempted replication exist before July 1, 2024, or if the pre-print is withdrawn without a new version being published that meets resolution criteria before the same date, the outcome will be considered non-replicable.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability27Jul282930311Aug2

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0175
-0.1420
0.9886
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0153
-0.1319
0.9902
Relative Score
A
-0.019
+0.075
+0.016
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0251
-0.1725
0.9827
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0502
-0.2537
0.9607
Relative Score
D+
+0.015
-0.042
-0.014
  • Polymarket
  • 158
  • 815
  • $3,594,400

Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0348
-0.2066
0.9747
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0025
-0.0512
0.9986
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0187
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0136
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.018
-0.006
  • Overall
  • 7
  • 1,275
  • $3,594,640
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0258
-0.1737
0.9820
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0227
-0.1456
0.9832
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0187
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0136
0.9999

Similar Questions

  • 5,041
  • $4,743,349

Manifold
C
+0.002
Polymarket
C+
-0.002
  • 1,361
  • $453,721

Kalshi
C
+0.002
Manifold
B
-0.004
Polymarket
C
+0.001
  • 1,603
  • $690,321

Manifold
B-
-0.004
Polymarket
C
+0.004
  • 1,744
  • $183,542

Manifold
C
+0.005
Polymarket
B
-0.005
  • 591
  • $49,970

Manifold
C+
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.002