Will Claudia Sheinbaum win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?
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Several markets are currently open on different platforms to predict the outcome of the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election. The election is scheduled for June 2, 2024, and will elect a new president for a six-year term. Claudia Sheinbaum, the current front-runner from the ruling coalition Sigamos Haciendo Historia, is expected to represent left-wing interests. The opposition coalition Fuerza y Corazón por México, led by Xóchitl Gálvez, also has significant support. The markets resolve Yes if Claudia Sheinbaum wins and No otherwise, with some markets requiring official information from Mexico as the primary resolution source.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJun

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0129
-0.1205
0.9919
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0131
-0.1213
0.9918
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0116
-0.1139
0.9928
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0059
-0.0800
0.9966
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.016
+0.005
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0444
-0.2365
0.9662
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0456
-0.2402
0.9651
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0209
-0.1563
0.9860
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0220
-0.1607
0.9851
Relative Score
D-
+0.031
-0.105
-0.028
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0057
-0.0788
0.9967
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0460
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0110
-0.1109
0.9932
Relative Score
B
-0.007
+0.040
+0.004
  • Overall
  • 154
  • 774
  • $750,261
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0210
-0.1450
0.9849
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0215
-0.1468
0.9845
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0115
-0.1054
0.9926
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0130
-0.1172
0.9916

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