Will Nayib Bukele win El Salvador's 2024 presidential election?
  • 413
  • 57
  • $117,576
Nayib Bukele has announced his candidacy for reelection in El Salvador's 2024 presidential election, despite the constitution initially banning it. The country's Supreme Court allowed the move through a favorable ruling, paving the way for him to run again. The outcome of the election will be determined by the official ruling of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE), which is expected to give its verdict once the election takes place. If Bukele wins, the market will resolve in his favor; otherwise, it will not.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0161
-0.1358
0.9896
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0160
-0.1354
0.9896
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0620
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0240
0.9997
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.007
-0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0001
-0.0116
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0001
-0.0103
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0116
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.007
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 413
  • 57
  • $117,576
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0081
-0.0737
0.9948
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0081
-0.0729
0.9948
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0620
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0178
0.9998

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